Monday, April 20, 2009

Reserve Money: A Tale of Two Countries post Lehman-event

Many market observers are surprised by the sustained increase in stock values across the globe since the lows hit in early March 2009.
At the same time, many Indian analysts are wondering why the credit cost to mid-sized corporate is not budging even after the significant rate cuts by RBI.
A partial answer to both the queries can be found in the development of reserve money in the USA and in India since Sept 2008 till date.
I produce below two very interesting charts, sourced from data provided by the Fed and the RBI.
First the growth in Reserve Money in USA, in % change yoy,


Note that the growth rate moved up from low single digits to more than 100% post Lehman.
Now, look at the growth in Reserve Money in India, in % change yoy,
Note that the growth rate moved down from 25% to less than 5% post Lehman.
This distinctly different path of Reserve Money has deep implications on how the two central banks will respond to ongoing crisis in the medium term, and more importantly, how the relative asset prices will move in the near future in India when compared with USA.

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